My Blog

What A Week!

November 19, 2008 by Bread

What a week I just had. The sports gambling gods were very very good to Bread. I have actually been winning pretty well for a few weeks now, but last week seemed more enjoyable. Sometimes when one finds himself in a winning groove, a feeling of nirvana can take over. You feel like Neo when he finally figured out that he was The One at the end of ‘The Matrix’. Of course I’m not so foolish to think that the bottom will never fall out, but until that sad day, I’m enjoying my recent fortune.

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UFC 91

November 14, 2008 by Bread

Is it just me, or is there a UFC main event every couple weeks or so? On Saturday night we will be up to UFC 91. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not tiring of it whatsoever. I’m also a fan of baseball with their one trillion game season. What will turn me off though, is the rising price of the pay-per-views. I’ve got my eye on you Dana White. Watch your step son.

Brock Lesnar -140
Randy Couture +120

Man this one is harder than my liver on the weekends. As of right now I have no clue who I am taking. Let’s see if I can talk myself into somebody.

Lesnar does not have a nickname, but I suggest he goes with “Mass”. The guy is just a beast. At an imposing 6’3” 265 lbs, he outweighs his opponent by 45 lbs. As evidenced in his unanimous decision win over Heath Herring, Lesnar can just impose his mass upon you. It doesn’t make for an exciting fight, but if he decides to fat out on top of you, you’re probably not going anywhere. Of course that’s if he doesn’t connect right away and send you into the fifth row seats. For the record, Heath Ledger probably would’ve put up more of a fight than Heath Herring did. And yes, I mean the current day version of Ledger. What a horrible match.

At 45 years, Couture is 14 years Lesnar’s elder. What he lacks in youth, he absolutely gains in experience over his newbie opponent. Many many moons ago, Randy himself was an experienced wrestler breaking into the world of MMA. If he can avoid a face-breaking swing, he will know Lesnar’s weaknesses and break him down.

Besides strength and youth, you can add rustiness to Couture’s suspect list. This is his first fight back from his sudden retirement which last saw him in the octagon in August of 07. Randy used that time to film ‘The Scorpion King 2’. He played a character named Sargon and had magical cauliflower ears. I won’t be seeing that movie.

Randy put down the battle- axe

After taking all things into account, I’m going with Couture. You just don’t bet against a champion. I think he will find a weakness in Lesnar’s game as Mir did and finish the fight. 5dimes is also offering odds on the fight going five complete rounds. No way that this happens. The odds are a little steep though (-495). Just for fun I’ll be doing Couture to win in the first round at +620, as well as to win the fight straight-up. See that? I went from having no clue to taking Couture in the first round. I’m my own financial advisor.

Kenny Florian -180
Joe Stevenson +158

Joe Stevenson was the winner of ‘The Ultimate Fighter Season 2’. As I remember him though, he was a big loser. Don’t get me wrong, the kid can fight and belongs in the UFC. But does anyone else remember his…how should I say this….There is a distasteful term for when a man has female-like breasts or nipples. I think you follow me. I remember Joe “Daddy”s nipples looked like they were trying to escape. It was weird!

Florian is the ultimate Boston tough guy. A very unassuming figure who will absolutely destroy you. He really should’ve had a role in ‘Gone Baby Gone’. This fight will go to the ground, and whether Florian is on top or bottom, he will proceed to open Stevenson up with his terrifying elbows. I don’t think red is really Stevenson’s color. I’ve missed the boat on Florian too many times. Not tonight.

Check out my crystal ball

Gabriel Gonzaga -400
Josh Hendricks +325

The last guy that Randy Couture wasn’t supposed to beat was Gabriel Gonzaga. That didn’t work out so well for Gabriel. Since then, he has lost to Fabricio Werdum and beaten Justin McCully. I’m going to post a picture of McCully aka The Insane 1. If nothing else I write makes you laugh, I hope that this clown’s picture, or nickname, puts a smile on your face.

Are you serious Justin McCully??

Josh Hendricks finds himself in his first UFC fight. That’s not what scares me. He lists his hero as his Grandfather Hendricks. I just hope he’s not alive to watch Josh get smacked around like an unexpected trick-or-treater. Gonzaga to win easily.

Demian Maia -235
Nate Quarry +195

You didn’t really think that I would go a whole article without mentioning the UFC pink hamster phenomenon did you?? Or as another friend has referred to them this week as the Ginger Kids!

Demeian Maia has choked out three straight opponents. The last two were Ed Herman and pink hamster extraordinaire Jason MacDonald. Maia is attempting to single-handedly put an end to the phenomenon.

I love you pink hamster

Nate Quarry is not a pink hamster at all, just a filler for the up and coming Brazilian. Add another choke out to Maia’s resume. I’m due for a 4-0 night. I will drink plenty of lucky beers help my chances.

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Lesson Learned? Nahhhhh

November 11, 2008 by Bread

With only so many football Sundays in the year, I suffer a small anxiety attack on every one of them. I want to cram the entire experience into one action-packed day each week. On days where I do sit home I am usually stuck watching the crappy Buccaneers game. A halftime score of 3-3 is what I’m stuck with more often than not.

I enjoy wagering on the games. I play in multiple fantasy football leagues. I run a survivor pool. And more than anything else, I’m just a fan of the NFL. When I head out, I want as many different games on in front of me as humanly possible. I turn into a machine, instinctively knowing which TV has a team in the red zone. It’s my time to shine.

On this past Sunday, I did two good sized wagers on the early games. I had the Atlanta-New Orleans Over 51 pts, and the Seattle-Miami Under 41.5 pts. I arrived at the sports bar and settled in with and ice cold bucket of brews.

I was feeling good about the Miami game until late in the 4th quarter. The score was 14-13 with Miami up until that point. With five and a half minutes remaining, Ronnie Brown ran it in from 16 yards out, making the score 21-13. Seattle promptly marched down the field and scored on a Seneca Wallace three yard pass to Koren Robinson. The score was 21-19 and the Seahawks needed the 2-pt conversion to tie the game, and kill my Under. Wallace drops back…NO GOOD! I was only half-worried. Wallace is so bad. What is a Seneca anyways? Isn’t that a soft drink or something? Maybe not.

I love you Seneca!

The Dolphins get the ball with three minutes to go. They do nothing and punt back to the Hawks with two minutes remaining. Now they only need a field goal for the win and the Over. Their kicker, Olindo Mare had already booted two. Before you know it, they were at midfield with 50 seconds left. Another 20 yards or so could do me in.

Then Seneca saved me with a clock-stopping spike, and three incompletions. I love that guy! Win number one was great. I had been keeping my eye on my other game though.

I was feeling decent at halftime of the Saints-Falcons game, as they posted 23 points. Needing more than 51, this was quite obtainable. Then the 3rd quarter lull happened. I hate 3rd quarter lulls. You come out of halftime feeling pumped up and the two teams combine for a sleep-inducing three points. My optimism had been subsided.

I need four 4th quarter touchdowns. Matt Ryan, attempting to lock up the Rookie of the Year title, takes care of one touchdown right away. A short pass to Jerious Norwood turns into a 67 yard high-stepping sprint to paydirt. Then with 10 minutes to go, Brees hits McAllister on a 15 yard score. Suddenly I’m feeling pretty good about myself! And then….nothing again.

With less than two minutes remaining, I still need those two touchdowns. With a minute and a half to go, Brees throws his third pick of the game to Chevis Jackson, who also high steps it 95 yards the other way. It’s like Primetime in the Georgia Dome all over again.

High Stepping is back in the Dirty

Now they’re just playing with my emotions. One more TD needed. The Saints get possession again with just over a minute left. They move the ball nicely down the field, but time becomes the enemy. The clock is down to six seconds, and it’s Hail Mary time. I’ve lost on Hail Marys before. No way I could ever win on one, right? Wrong. The pass gets batted around in the end zone and falls right into the arms of receiver Lance Moore. Unbelievable!

If I had lost both those games in that manner, I’m not sure what might’ve happened. I could’ve been writing this on prison stationery. Let’s not think about that.

Now I just hit two ridiculous winners. I was pumped up and checking out the second round of games. I’m not a system bettor. I enjoy action and shoot from the hip. And that’s when I caught myself. Having just hit two nice paying, highly unlikely winners, there could only be a letdown ahead. There was no way it could get any better. I did not want to give back such hard-earned money.

I decided upon Carolina and San Diego for very small amounts to keep my interest. The games ended up splitting and were not even interesting. I would like to think that I have learned from some past mistakes where I would let the excitement of the moment; my compulsive overconfidence and the distortion of a beer buzz get the better of me. While that may or may not be the case, it worked out for me on Sunday. Which means next time, I’ll probably try to double up. I love the pain.

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My First Time

November 5, 2008 by Bread

Everyone remembers their first time. My first time was almost eight years ago. It was the NFL’s 2000 season, Week 14. I remember it like it was yesterday.

I used to date a Jacksonville Jaguars fanatic. On Sundays, this girl would transform into a teal-wearing super fan. I feared for anyone’s health who would dare talk bad about Mark Brunell in her presence. One weekend, we decided to make the three hour drive up to Jacksonville to take in a live game.

It just so happened that I had a group of buddies heading out to Vegas on that same weekend. One of them asked me if I wanted him to bet any games for me while he was there. After some deliberation, I took the plunge. I gave him $50, and he agreed to call me before the games started for further instructions.

Now keep in mind that back then, $50 was like $1,000 to me. I was pretty busted, and my bill money was going towards beer. Up until that point, I had played fantasy football for over 10 years. I knew the season-long gamble rush that it had provided. I had never bet so much on a single game with immediate results before. I was looking forward to it.

We arrived in Jacksonville early on Saturday and got the prerequisite downtown partying out of the way. Then Sunday morning arrived. The Jags game was a 4:00 p.m. I grabbed a paper and began to scour through the early games. We headed out around 11 that morning to find a sports bar. By noon, I had already absorbed a couple bottles of liquid courage. I had chosen my game, and awaited my phone call.

Kickoff drew near and my phone remained dormant. I was wondering if my sports betting virginity was going to be brushed off like my sexual virginity had been so many times before it. Then, he called me. Score!

The Oakland Raiders were 3-point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers. I instructed him to put my entire $50 on Pittsburgh. It was then that my friend informed me that another buddy that was there with him was doing a really big bet. For this story, we’ll just call him “Pete.” This was Pete’s first time at a sportsbook, and he wanted to pop his cherry with a bang. He was risking $1,100 to win $1,000 on the St. Louis Rams. They were 7½-point favorites playing the lowly Carolina Panthers. Once again, to any of my broke band of friends, a grand then was like the equivalent of 10 grand. Pete had lost his mind.

My hero for a day

Then the games began. Wouldn’t you know it…my measly $50 wager made that game take on a new life. Dropped passes and penalties had never hurt so badly. Field goals and even extra points had never meant so much. While I wished temporary ill will towards Rich Gannon and Tyrone Wheatley, I found myself rooting for Kordell Stewart of all people, like never before. Sometime in the fourth quarter, Slash pulled it out for me, scoring on a long TD run and giving the Steelers a 21-20 outright win.

As much as I wanted to enjoy my moment, I was always drawn to that Rams game. I asked them to put it on the TV next to my game so I could keep an eye on it. These were the defending Super Bowl champs, playing a bad Panthers team. The Greatest Show on Turf, which was known for putting up a kajillion points on a regular basis, led by Kurt Warner. Their offense was so good, that it was the norm for their fourth and fifth receivers to crack fantasy starting lineups. I think you already know how this story ended for Pete.

Warner threw for just 189 yards with four picks, and was sacked seven times. The Rams fumbled four times, losing three of them and were flagged for nine penalties. Carolina won 16-3 behind three Joe Nedney field goals. Pete couldn’t have picked a worse game to unload on. I heard it ruined the rest of his trip.

'Pete' is still bitter

To this day you can still get a reaction when you mention this game to him. In case you weren’t sure, it’s not a good one. I do know that he just won $200 on Arizona this past weekend, so maybe he’s made his peace with Kurt Warner? Naaahhhh…

That afternoon we went to the Jags' game. They were playing the Browns who were starting Spurgeon Wynn at quarterback. In a truly comical performance, Wynn threw for seventeen yards. The score was 48-0 Jacksonville. I pulled out my paper and saw that they were only favored by 14½. I knew I was hooked.

Of course I’ve had many games that I wish I could wipe away from my memory since then. But I’ll never forget my first. And neither will Pete.

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Bungles UNDERRRR

November 1, 2008 by Bread

Hello darkness my old friend. The darkness I refer to, of course, is the complete lack of offense that the Bengals put on the field. Couple that with Jacksonville’s mediocre offense, and they can not make this line low enough. The books currently have it set at 39.5. That is down a full point from when it opened, and I would expect it to drop even more.

Child abuse

I was going to write about Cincinnati covering the 7.5 points they are getting from the Jags, until I saw that LT Profits is taking Jacksonville. I won’t be going against him for awhile after that World Series debacle. So instead I will be enjoying the dark comedy of this game. I fully expect a baseball score at this game’s conclusion.

The Jaguars are 25^th in the league averaging 20.1 points a game. They have had a disappointing first half, posting a 3-4 record. Last years effective offense has not returned as of yet. The under has hit four out of seven times in their games. They are a ball control type team, which is great for running clock. They absolutely need to grab early leads to allow Maurice Jones-Drew to wear down defenses and kill time.

And then there are the Bungles. Their winless record is just the beginning of their problems. Unless you are a fan of the utterly terrible like me, I hope you have not been subjected to watching this team play.

Since replacing the injured Carson Palmer early in the year, Ryan Fitzpatrick has hardly been the answer. His 61.6 quarterback rating is good for 34^th in the league. He has thrown two touchdowns and five interceptions. The team looks horribly clueless under his leadership. Cincy is second last in the league averaging an embarrassing 140.4 passing yards per game. Their running game is just as non-existent, averaging 77.8 ypg.

This was the highlight of the game

The Bengals are last in the league in scoring, managing only 13 points a game. They have only eight offensive touchdowns on the year. Washington’s Clinton Portis has seven alone!

The under has hit five times in eight Bengal’s games. The under is 5-1 in the last six games at Paul Brown Stadium. The under is 10-4 in Cincinnati’s last 14 games overall. The under the under the under.

If you need further proof that this matchup will be low scoring, I have three players in this game on my fantasy teams. That’s the final kiss of death right there. I wouldn’t be surprised if it was a battle of field goals. I will be taking the under, and probably the Bengals to cover as well. Just don’t tell LT Profits.

Lions fans are laughing at you

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Gambling Movie Review: BOOKIES

August 28, 2008 by Bread

Since I am doing a little writing for SBRForum.com, I thought I should do everything that I can to keep educating myself on the topic. I recently watched The Runner Balls, and before that, the cinematic disaster that was 21 Balls.

How am I supposed to learn anything about gambling watching this bullshit?!?!

Aha! That's right, I just said AHA!!!!! A movie about actual bookies! Less doodiss!!!

OK so as you can see from the cover, they hired 4 really ugly dudes to play the parts of some college kids who get the bright idea to start up a booking business. One of them is named Hunter McGuire. If I met anyone with that name, I would not be their friend.

OK great start here. Whenever any gambling lingo is used like "dime", "parlay" or "moneyline", the producers have decided to put up subtitles to explain to the dribbling masses what they mean. Jeezus I said I needed some tips here, not my goddam ass to be powdered!!

Ladies and gentlemen, we just had our first Mom joke. Oh and somebody bet on the Bills. This is going downhill fast.

OK so when you are running a covert gambling ring at your university, how do you do the money exchanges? You don't want the other kids to know it is you running the show. Well duh!! You have them leave thousands of dollars inside books at the library! Then later in the day you run by and pick it up!!! Holy Christ in a casino that is brilliant!!!

Oh oh...The naughty REAL bookies are stahtin ta get a little pissed awf now! The "muscle" bookie kinda looks like JJ Gold with hair. You remember him right? The guy who wants to kill me?

The "edgy" character of the group is played by Johnny Galecki. You might know him as the dork on 'Roseanne'.

When someone doesn't have the money they owe, this guy takes things a step further than traditional bookies. Oh no siree...there will be no cracking of the kneecaps. No garden shears on the old fifth digit. This guy will make you pay. These are not your grandparents' bookies.

So our wacky band of bet holders get into some inevitable financial troubles. I'd like to say there was an riveting build-up to get to this point, but I don't even remember what happened. Now they are desperate.

Up until now, they have capped their limits at $500. They would not accept any wager above that. Now they feel compelled to raise their limits one time. Not to $600. Not $1000. Nope. Our small time losers are now accepting a bet for $100,000. Even for this film, that doesn't make any sense.

Something happens and the movie ends with some gay message. I hate movies that do that. So I am even more confused than ever. I have now regressed to gambling in its most infantile form...Playing marbles out back with my buddies. Winner keeps the marbles in the pot. But don't tell Chinaman OK? He will miss my donations

And now a random Photobucket search for the word "bookies". First, some images of how great your life can be as a bookie.

Jrich and his homey before the game starts

These guys should just enjoy their kayak meet and quit worrying about the games

SBR John's pad. This is his closet, btw

AgainstAllOdds and Beat the Jerk

And now, how things can turn out for you once you either A) Can't pay people, or B) The real bookies come looking for you.

Jrich after the game

Rogue Juror getting sharked

This is actually Pavy with the pretzel. His life partner is not happy that Pavy is eating junk food again

This is how Patty Venditto pays off his debts

Be careful kids.

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Greece - USA

August 12, 2008 by Bread

Greece to cover spread against USA on Thursday 8am.

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Yankees - Rangers will be an over

August 6, 2008 by Bread

It should be business as usual for bettors who enjoy the over when the New York Yankees play the Texas Rangers at 8:05 on Wednesday night. Sportsbooks currently have the line set at 12 ½ runs. With the way that these two teams have been playing recently…on both sides of the ball…that line should not be much of a problem.

I was saddened to learn that Jason Giambi’s recent slump prompted him to shave off his walrus-like moustache. One less smile on Bread’s face for this game. That smile should quickly return, however, once the Yankees and Rangers start to light up the scoreboard.

The over is 10-1 in the Yankee’s last 11 games. Three times during that stretch it was New York reaching double digits, scoring 10, 13 and 14 runs in wins against Boston, Baltimore and the L.A. Angels. Twice, they lost while giving up double digits, 13 to Baltimore and 12 to the Angels. Three other times within this same stretch, 9 runs were scored by the Yankees or their opponent.

With the Rangers, the over is 11-2-1 in their last 14 games. They scored 14 runs en route to beating up Oakland. They also gave up 10 runs to the White Sox two nights in a row! Then there was the over bettor’s dream game, an 11-10 victory over Seattle. Texas also was involved in three more 9 run efforts.

So as you can see, the runs are being produced just as much as they are being given up. Both games of this series so far were high scoring. There are many reasons why it will be again tonight.

Texas will be starting untested righty Tommy Hunter. Hunter struggled a bit in his Major League debut on Friday against Toronto. From that game he has emerged with a 10.80 ERA. Of course, that doesn’t mean much with only one game under his belt. Unfortunately for Tommy, an experienced team like the Yankees are not going to help his cause. Even with their maturing stars, New York is sixth in the league in runs scored.

The man on the mound for visiting New York will be Sidney Ponson (6-2 4.23 ERA). Ponson started the year pitching for Texas. Once again he apparently wore out his welcome in Arlington and was waived. After spending the first 6 years of his career with the Orioles, he has changed uniforms 7 times the past five years. There is probably a good chance he could be pitching for another team by game time.

Ponson is the 3^rd Aruban native to play in the Majors. Unfortunately for him, he will probably have a better chance of finding Natalee Holloway than he will finding outs with this up-and-coming Rangers team.

The story of the year has to be Texas outfielder Josh Hamilton. Has there ever been a more deceptive losing effort than Hamilton at the Home Run Derby? I actually read an article from a major newspaper recently that briefly referred to him as the “most recent home run champ”. He was the toast of the town on that evening, with the entire stadium chanting his name as he blasted bomb after bomb into the upper decks. Many believe that was Josh’s arriving party. He is certainly in the midst of an amazing season. His 27 home runs are tied for third best in the AL and he leads the entire league in RBI’s with a whopping 108. That number will certainly grow after this game.

Second baseman Ian Kinsler is another one having a spectacular year. He leads the league in runs scored, crossing the plate 94 times. Michael Young and Milton Bradley round out Texas’ big four. In case these aren’t enough reasons to load up on the over, here are a couple more.

Rangers Ballpark in Arlington has always been known as a hitter’s park. This year is no different. The stadium leads the league in OPS at 8.50, and game totals there AVERAGE 12.53. That is an amazing stat. With some of the slugfests that have taken place there this year, Texas fans probably lead the league in next day callouts. That should be an actual stat.

The Rangers’ closer has been C.J. Wilson. C.J. has 24 saves, but a 6.02 ERA. That is not a number that you want affiliated with your closer. Sounds like some possible late inning drama to me. Eddie Guardado may have even supplanted him as the team closer. Even Mariano Rivera, in the middle of another dominating season for New York, is questionable with back spasms.

Given all of these factors, if you still decide to wager on the under, you are a sadist. Say no to pain, and enjoy what promises to be an explosive game.

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